On Feb. 22, BMO reported that precious metals such as palladium and gold will benefit from the escalating situation in Ukraine and increasing sanctions against Russia, while commodities such as aluminum and nickel are also worth watching. Analysts at Blue Line Futures said tensions escalated in the West in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin's announcement that he recognized two self-proclaimed republics in eastern Ukraine and ordered troops to be sent there as "peacekeepers."
In response, U.S. President Joe Biden said he would release the first sanctions against Russia, targeting two Russian banks and sovereign debt. Biden also called Russia's actions "the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine." Earlier in the day, Germany announced it was halting the certification process for nord Stream 2 gas pipeline imports from Russia. In addition, the EU imposed sanctions on most members of the Russian Duma and banned purchases of Russian government bonds.
Esto podría ser solo el comienzo de las sanciones contra Rusia, razón por la cual el informe de BMO decidió analizar el impacto potencial en los flujos comerciales de productos básicos.
"Ultimately, we expect Russian commodity exports to shift from Europe and North America to Asia," bMO commodities analyst Colin Hamilton said. A change in existing trade routes would lead to temporary disruption of market fundamentals, with precious metals being the commodities most affected by the shortage."
Palladium is the best performer of all precious metals, with Russia accounting for 39 per cent of the world's refined metal supply. Palladium prices have surged 24 per cent so far this year. Hamilton warned that further supply disruptions from Russia could lead to a sharp rise in palladium prices.
"Supply uncertainty, combined with the resumption of auto production, led to higher palladium prices... Russia is expected to account for 9 per cent of gold, 6 per cent of silver, 11 per cent of platinum and 8 per cent of rhodium supply respectively."
Además de las preocupaciones sobre el suministro, el atractivo-refugio seguro de los metales preciosos está atrayendo a más inversores que buscan seguridad frente a la caída del mercado bursátil mundial.
Hamilton added: "Safe-haven investment demand in the market is also stimulating gold prices, which have recovered to around 1,900 an ounce."
Rusia es un importante proveedor no solo de petróleo, sino también de varios productos básicos estratégicos que deberían beneficiarse del aumento de las tensiones geopolíticas en Europa del Este, dijo Phil Streible, estratega jefe de mercado de Blue Line Futures. Con suministros de petróleo y gas ajustados, los precios del petróleo crudo podrían dispararse por encima de 100 o incluso 120 por barril, dijo Streible.
Other strategic metals such as palladium, copper and cobalt will also benefit further, he said. "Russia is the second largest platinum producer in the world, the first palladium producer, the third largest wheat producer," he said. Wheat prices have begun to rise, up 4.85 percent so far this year. Russia produces 3.5 percent of the world's copper. As demand for electric cars increases, copper is one of the main ingredients... Russia produces 4 percent of the world's cobalt, which is used in batteries for electric cars. So Russia is a very strategic country in terms of commodity production, commodity exports and the direction of the global economy."
El analista de materias primas de Bmo, Colin Hamilton, añadió que las materias primas como el aluminio y el níquel también valían la pena, especialmente en Europa y América del Norte. A nivel mundial, los suministros rusos no son necesariamente tan importantes, pero están bien establecidos en los mercados desarrollados. Quizás lo más importante es que los inventarios de estos productos ya son bajos. Además, espera que las primas de aluminio de la LME en Europa y América del Norte aumenten a corto plazo.
